LEXINGTON, Ky. — Are we really going to do this? Are we really going to start the college basketball season next week as COVID-19 numbers continue to spike? Are we going to let 3,000 fans into Rupp Arena when we're discouraging large family gatherings for Thanksgiving?
Hold your boos, but I agree with Rick Pitino. Preparing for his first season at Iona, the former UK and Louisville coach told the New York Post over the weekend, "The option (of starting the season on Nov. 25) right now is destined for failure."
Pitino backs the ACC coaches' idea of allowing every team into the NCAA Tournament. (Hey, we agree on that, too.) Since that idea has gained little support, Pitino suggests moving the start of the season to March 2021 with conference-only schedules leading into a "May Madness" tournament.
That's unlikely, especially now that the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Selection Committee, chaired by UK Athletics Director Mitch Barnhart, announced Monday it is in negotiations to hold the entire 68-team tournament in and around Indianapolis. (By the way, I agree with that idea, too.)
The economic fact of the matter is that having lost one basketball tournament, the NCAA can't afford to lose two. There's too much money at stake for both the institution itself and its members, most of which are taking huge financial hits right now because of the coronavirus.
But if the Hoosier bubble addresses the end of the season, what about the start? We are only a week away from Kentucky's opener against Morehead State in Rupp Arena, after all. And in case you haven't heard, the coronavirus did not vanish after the presidential election. Case numbers are on the rise everywhere. Just Tuesday, Lexington set a one-month record with 2,838 new COVID-19 cases for November. That's 34 more than we had in September, the previous high, and we have two weeks to go before December.
Look at what's going on with college football right now. Seventeen games, including four SEC tilts, were postponed last week. No. 1 Alabama, No. 3 Ohio State and No. 5 Texas A&M all had games postponed. This Saturday's Texas A&M-Ole Miss matchup has already been scrapped.
"Shaken, but not deterred," was how SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey described last week.
Meanwhile, over 20 college basketball programs are currently on pause because of COVID-19 with 60 having already suffered disruptions. Included in that number is Connecticut, Iona, Seton Hall, Minnesota, Southern Illinois, Loyola-Chicago and Syracuse, where 76-year-old head coach Jim Boeheim announced he has tested positive for COVID-19. The Ivy League has canceled winter sports entirely.
There's plenty of reason for hope down the road. Pfizer announced last week it has developed a coronavirus vaccine that has proven 90% effective. Monday, Moderna announced its vaccine has shown to be 95% effective. Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Monday that "2021 is going to rapidly become a much better year. We have to get through the three hardest months right now. I'm hoping people can hunker down and recognize this is a temporary sacrifice what we need to do over the next two or three months to preserve life."
The next three months? That's the heart of the college hoops season. In football, a team can have 85 players on scholarship, with the SEC requiring 53 available to still play a game. But college basketball teams have just 13 scholarships. That's a thin line to walk.
Meanwhile, assuming games are played, there's the attendance question. Allowing 12,000 fans to sit in the great outdoors of Kroger Stadium for a football game is one thing, but having 3,000 fans inside Rupp Arena is quite another, especially when the science suggests indoors is where the virus is most likely to spread. You say everyone will be required to wear masks? I'll believe it when I see it.
"The writing is on the wall that this virus is spiking and out of control," Pitino told the Post, "and with the protocol and the rules set forth, it's impossible to have a season."
Love him or hate him, Ricky P just might be right.
