PUNE: The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) plans to give the Covid-19 preparedness simulator it has developed to all states to enable them to efficiently prepare for a possible third wave and subsequent Covid waves.
Dr Samiran Panda, senior scientist and head of the ICMR’s epidemiology and communicable diseases division, told TOI that state or district-specific epidemiological data will be used to feed into the simulator for state-specific projection of another wave, which could then be used for planning health resources and taking action.
Dr Panda said that there is a need for each state to have access to the possible future Covid wave graphs, including the third wave. “For instance, the second wave had a different disease progression in different states, underlining the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic. Hence, a model that can project future surges specific to a smaller, local geographical area is required,” he said.
He said that the timing of the second wave differed from state to state, which is why local projection is of importance. “Once the district or state authorities get to know of an upcoming surge, suitable micro-containment measures could be adopted, including action on prevention of spread of infection from a region, where the surge is expected, to other regions,” he said.
The model was recently used to predict the severity of the third wave in India. It is called CHROMIC--Collaborative Health Research On Modelling by ICMR and Imperial College model. Dr Panda said that the simulator is based on a deterministic, compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
