The sheer quantity of mayhem in Friday’s Topham Chase was a useful and timely corrective for those tempted to present their Grand National conclusions with too much in the way of confidence. These fences may be softer in the middle than in Red Rum’s time but they still take plenty of jumping and clearly the days of loose horses taking others out of the race are not yet history.
But if there is a horse in today’s field that I trust to navigate his way among the icebergs, it is The Druids Nephew (4.15). He was last seen taking on 23 rivals at the Cheltenham Festival, looking at ease and in control throughout.
That day he could be called the winner a long way from home. It looked as though his jockey, Barry Geraghty, could have put him anywhere in the packed field that he wished and Geraghty was in the enviable position of being able to wait for a stride or two after hitting the front before asking for a final effort. If the horse tackles this track in a similar mood, he will have a better chance than most of picking his way through any trouble that happens in front of him.
The Druids Nephew is only eight years old, younger than most Grand National winners, but this is his third season over fences and he has had plenty of experience. Importantly he has shown enormous improvement since joining the very promising young trainer Neil Mulholland about a year ago. Mulholland says the horse has been trained through the winter with the twin targets of Cheltenham and Aintree in mind.
Geraghty’s big-race nous would have been very useful here but alas he has been sidelined by a fractured shin. Aidan Coleman, who won the Welsh National in December, is a highly capable replacement.
Most of the advance chatter about this race has concerned Tony McCoy, who is expected to retire on the spot if he wins on Shutthefrontdoor. This horse has excellent credentials as the winner of last year’s Irish National but he has had only one race since and I particularly dislike the fact that he has not been seen in public for four months. The same concern puts me off Balthazar King, last year’s runner-up.
A big effort can be expected from Soll, who, at the age of 10, has achieved career-best performances in his most recent two runs, allowing him to sneak into this race at the foot of the weights. He ran well but too freely for a long way in the 2013 race and more conservative tactics may help this time.
He appears to have improved for the switch to a new stable in the last year, a thing he has in common with The Druids Nephew and also Saint Are, an interesting each-way option at 33-1. It may be worth recalling that Pineau De Re, last year’s winner, had also changed stable the previous summer.
Pineau De Re is higher in the weights this time and will do very well to get into the argument once more. But his stablemate Royale Knight seems to have stamina to spare and may uphold the yard’s reputation by reaching the places.
1.30 Seedling comes here fresh and should appreciate the drying surface.
2.05 God’s Own will not be beaten if he can run to something like the level he showed when second at Cheltenham.
2.50 Whisper will be fitter than at the Festival and can turn the tables on Cole Harden.
3.25 Vino Griego was beaten only a head in this race last year and is now lower in the weights.
