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USA Today Sports Media Group
USA Today Sports Media Group
Sport
Henry McKenna

Dispelling the myth that Bill Belichick only trades down in the draft

Amid the success of the New England Patriots under Bill Belichick, the team’s draft position tends to be at the back end of the first round. That means that those in New England have to wait until the later hours of the evening to see who the Patriots select. Thing is, Belichick made a habit of trading out of the first round — to the frustration of those that had waited to see who New England would select. All the anticipation had been for nothing.

Belichick favors trading down — the stats support that. But it’s not as clear-cut as many make it out to be. Ahead of the 2019 NFL Draft, the Patriots released the numbers on Belichick’s draft-weekend trades. He has made…

  • 21 draft-weekend trades to move up,
  • 24 draft-weekend trades to move down.
  • and 25 draft-weekend trades involving players and/or future considerations.

Belichick doesn’t mind trading up the board. In fact, he has traded up in the first round four times. He did it twice in 2012 when he landed linebacker Dont’a Hightower and defensive end Chandler Jones. They are still among the best players at their position in the NFL. Belichick traded up one spot for defensive tackle Ty Warren in 2003 and the Patriots traded up from 31st overall to No. 21 to get tight end Daniel Graham in 2002.

The Patriots coach has earned a reputation for being unpredictable on the football field, and that pattern follows in the draft. He’s impossible to predict, largely because he seems to identify trends in the NFL before others can. When an NFL trend heads one way, he might go the other direction to find a market inefficiency. When it comes to trading up or down the board, there’s no saying what Belichick will do in 2019. It will all depend on which prospect fall, which don’t and what deals are on the table.

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