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ABC News
ABC News
Business
Stephanie Chalmers

Trumped-up markets and economies finish 2017 on a high

It was a year that started full of unknowns.

From the reality of a Trump presidency, to the risk of rising populism in Europe, to fears of a China slowdown, 2017 appeared to present a series of market-moving possibilities, higher in what the boffins call "downside risk".

But, in the end, it was a year that was more remarkable for its lack of volatility and a comeback shared across economies the world over.

Here's how it played out.

US market has a HUGE year!

As anyone who follows Donald Trump on Twitter will have been frequently reminded this year, the US stock market is booming.

Wall Street hit records nearly as frequently as the President hit the 'tweet' button.

The blue chip Dow Jones index broke through 20,000 points for the first time in late January.

The Dow finished the year 25 per cent higher, while the broader S&P 500 index rose nearly 20 per cent.

Technology stocks were standouts. Facebook, Amazon and Netflix all gained more than 50 per cent over the year.

Investors spent months anticipating the Republicans' corporate tax cut plan and it was finally delivered in December, in a major legislative victory for the President.

But market watchers say Mr Trump can't take all the credit for the rally.

Henderson Maxwell's Tony Davison said the President's contribution has been largely to do with improving sentiment.

"The two things Donald Trump can claim credit for are a vastly improved level of business optimism in America and a willingness to test the conventions," he said.

AMP Capital chief economist and head of investment strategy Shane Oliver said, while the President has spurred some of the optimism through easing regulatory burdens and cutting taxes, it wasn't just a US story in 2017.

"The main drivers have been a rebound in US profits on the back of stronger economic growth," he said.

"This has pretty much been a global phenomenon which has seen all share markets put in strong returns in 2017, not just the US."

The good vibes go global

In 2017, the economic bounce back became truly broad-based for the first time since the global financial crisis.

While the US has been on the rebound for some time, other previously uncertain economies finally found firmer footing.

"Europe has strengthened, which, with ongoing strength in the US economy, means two big engines for global growth are firing," said Ivan Colhoun, NAB's chief economist (markets).

While much has been made of the synchronised lift across the globe, Westpac's chief economist Bill Evans said one factor outweighs the others from a local point of view.

"From Australia's perspective, the key development has been the faster-than-anticipated growth in China," he wrote.

The World Bank expects China's economy to have grown at a healthy 6.8 per cent in 2017.

But with the rewards come risks.

Mr Evans sees China as the biggest unknown looming in the years ahead.

"The Chinese financial system, particularly for Australia, stands above any other issues that should be worrying us."

Aussie market hits post-GFC high but banks are battered

Australian equities rode the rising global tide in 2017.

Higher commodity prices provided a boost in the second half, as stronger demand and tighter supply buoyed iron ore and oil prices.

In November, the ASX 200 hit 6,000 points for the first time in nearly a decade, breaking through the psychological level that has eluded it since the GFC.

But the ASX underperformed its global peers, as negative sentiment in our market's biggest sector put a lid on gains.

With financials making up nearly 40 per cent of the ASX 200, a blow to the banks is a blow to the broader index.

In May, the federal budget contained a rude surprise for the major banks in the form of a new levy.

The bank stocks took a tumble, pulling the rest of the market with them.

Between May and October, the market trod water, before gaining major momentum in October.

The troubles for the banks are far from over, however, with the sector facing further scrutiny.

"The Royal Commission called on the banks was the major surprise in the market this year," said Chris Stott, chief investment officer at Wilson Asset Management.

Tony Davison thinks the fact the Government has taken aim at the banks won't be viewed favourably by those offshore.

"I think that's been a really massive setback for foreign investor perceptions of Australia as a place for their money," he said.

"I do think that will hold back our market in relative terms."

Moguls make moves in December deals

Major merger and acquisition activity peaked late in the year, with December seeing the highest number of deals worth over $US10 billion, according to Mergermarkets.

The largest deal of the year saw 21st Century Fox sell a large chunk of its assets to Disney, further splitting its entertainment and news businesses.

Rupert Murdoch ended his era of empire-building, getting out of entertainment and returning to his newsman roots.

Back Down Under, change was also afoot in the media sector this year. US television giant CBS snapped up the embattled Ten Network, derailing a takeover effort by local tycoons Lachlan Murdoch and Bruce Gordon.

As traditional media assets continue to face structural challenges, Tony Davison expects even greater activity in the space.

"I think we're going to see more and more deals and governments taking less of a red-tape approach to allowing these guys to come together," he said.

In another industry facing structural headwinds, the shopping centre business, the Lowy family sold off Westfield Corporation in a $32.7 billion deal.

After making his fortune through the Westfield centres, Frank Lowy announced the sale of the international business to French property giant Unibail-Rodamco.

So, should buyers be cautious of the assets being sold off by some of the most successful in the business?

When it comes to Westfield, Roger Montgomery from Montgomery Investment Management thinks so.

"The Lowy family are arguably the most astute property developers in the world and I would not want to be buying what they are selling," he said in the wake of the deal.

"You'd have to be a very brave property developer to buy property from the Lowys."

'Speculative mania': bitcoin surges

Bitcoin has leapt from the financial fringes into the Google search boxes of Australians. The search engine lists bitcoin queries among some of the most asked questions this year.

But Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe wasn't among those looking for answers. He's already deemed the frenzy as "speculative mania".

From below $US2,000 in January, bitcoin prices tracked steadily higher, before a late surge sent it skyrocketing, briefly breaching $US19,000.

Futures trading commenced on two Chicago-based exchanges and, as bitcoin led the march towards the mainstream, other cryptocurrencies benefitted from the price boost.

Climbing alongside bitcoin prices were concerns of a crash, with comparisons drawn to Holland's "tulip mania" of the 17th century and the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s.

One can only speculate whether the "mania" will prove to be just that in 2018.

Heading into the new year, market watchers are again keeping an eagle eye on geopolitical risks.

"[I'm watching] the risk Donald Trump may revert to populism ahead of the mid-term elections in the US," said Shane Oliver.

There's also the potential end of the era of highly accommodative monetary policy.

"We're particularly interested in the extent to which European and other central banks wind back quantitative easing and remove negative policy interest rates," said Ivan Colhoun.

If 2017 is anything to go by, we'll be hearing about it on Donald Trump's Twitter feed, whether it's good news, bad news or "fake news".

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