Can you feel it, folks?
We’re inching closer and closer to fantasy football draft season! Over the last few years, managers who’ve put a greater emphasis on grabbing rookies in their drafts have been rewarded with breakout stars and draft bargains the likes of Najee Harris, Kenneth Walker, Ja’Marr Chase and Garrett Wilson. Of course, a big part of that success is picking the right “big names” and avoiding those who fall into the bust category.
Also, the reality of this fantasy situation is that there are far more disappointments than rookies who blow up in the stat sheets. The main reasons for many first-year failures include struggling with the learning curve from college to the pros, landing on a team with a crowded depth chart or unexpected time missed due to injuries.
In an effort to avoid picking some of the potential busts from this year’s draft class, here’s my look at 10 rookies who could fail to meet expectations in Year One.
Note: Players are listed based on current average draft position (ADP) data.
Adam Cairns/USA Today Sports Network
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks
Widely considered the best wideout in the 2023 class, Smith-Njigba landed in what could be a good long-term spot with the Seahawks. For now, however, he’ll be no more than the third option in the Seattle passing game behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. That puts a significant cap on his rookie ceiling in terms of stats and makes Smith-Njigba more of a middle- to late-round redraft selection.
Bryce Young, QB, Panthers
Young landed in a great spot, as he’ll be the likely unquestioned starter in Carolina as a rookie. And while he’s proven to be an accurate passer who will learn from head man and former NFL quarterback Frank Reich, I do see Young struggling as a rookie, and his lack of size could become an issue for him, too. He could emerge as a good NFL quarterback long term, but I’d pass on him in most fantasy redrafts.
Quentin Johnston, WR, Chargers
Johnston is a big-bodied receiver who could be the Chargers’ No. 1 wideout of the future. However, he’ll be battling Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Josh Palmer for targets in his first season. So, unless Allen or Williams is forced to miss time due to injuries, Johnston could have a tough time making an immediate impact.
Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens
Like Johnston, I like Flowers more in the long term than as a rookie in fantasy leagues. The Ravens added Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor this offseason, and Baltimore has incumbents like Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman also in the mix. I’m also concerned that Flowers’ lack of size could be a hindrance to him in the stat sheets at the next level. At best, he's worth a late-round look in redrafts.
Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seahawks
Charbonnet was widely considered to be a potential starter at the next level, but that won’t happen in Seattle. Instead, he’ll play behind incumbent starter Kenneth Walker in what could become yet another backfield committee. This landing spot is not only a loser for Charbonnet’s fantasy appeal, but we also now have to be concerned about Walker’s role. Thanks a lot, coach Pete Carroll.
Josh Downs, WR, Colts
Downs was a star in his final two seasons in college, posting a combined 195 catches for 2,364 yards and 19 scores. Exclusively a slot receiver, he’ll probably be playing a secondary role behind Isaiah McKenzie in what could be a run-heavy offense in 2023. While I like Downs as a dynasty stash in the Colts offense, he’ll have a tough time making a real fantasy football impact this year.
Jalin Hyatt, WR, Giants
Hyatt is an explosive pass catcher who posted a strong 67-1,267-15 line in his final collegiate season. His route tree could be a bit limited, though, and he played in a Tennessee offense that ran a ton of RPOs. Hyatt also had most of his success in the slot, where the Giants already have a ton of options. I like him as more of a long-term, dynasty option than a potential redraft option in fantasy leagues.
Luke Schoonmaker, TE, Cowboys
Dallas took Schoonmaker in the second round of the draft. He didn’t post great stats in his college days and was used as more of a blocker during most of his time at Michigan. The Cowboys will use a committee approach with Schoonmaker, Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot, making all three undraftable in most leagues.
Hendon Hooker, QB, Lions
Hooker landed in what could be a good spot in the long term, but you must question whether he has the tools to be an NFL starter. He used play action on 53.6% of his drop backs in college and ran a ton of RPOs. As a passer, he did complete 69.6% of his passes in 2023. Still, he won’t pass incumbent starter Jared Goff on the depth chart as a rookie unless long-term injuries occur.
Darnell Washington, TE, Steelers
Washington fell in the draft over concerns about an injured knee, and his landing spot won’t be conducive to making an impact. The Steelers boast a strong pass-catching tight end in Pat Freiermuth, so Washington will play a secondary role and be used mostly in-line because of his size (6’7”, 264 pounds). He’ll be more of a dynasty option heading into Year 1, and even then I'd temper expectations.
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