The latest College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday revealed undefeated Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan and TCU as the top four teams, in that order.
Naturally, betting odds to reach the CFP followed the same order at Tipico Sportsbook — that is, until No. 4.
TCU’s odds to reach the playoff are still relatively long at +700 compared to Georgia (-3030), Ohio State (-649) and Michigan (+115). Even No. 6 Oregon (+300), No. 8 USC (+500) and No. 10 Clemson (+600) have shorter odds.
That all makes it perfectly clear how the Horned Frogs are expected to finish the season. Outside of the top four.
The reason is simple. TCU’s strength of schedule is just 68th in the nation, according to ESPN’s College Football Power Index. So the Frogs need to stay undefeated in order to make the CFP. However, the team’s remaining strength of schedule ranks as the hardest in the nation, giving them just a 3.8% chance to win out, according to ESPN’s FPI.
That’s the lowest percentage of all of the playoff hopefuls. As a result, FPI gives TCU a 17.3% chance to make the playoff, which ranks behind Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Tennessee and Clemson.
If you’re more optimistic about TCU’s chances to run the table — winning at No. 18 Texas (6-3), at Baylor (6-3), at home against Iowa State (4-5), then in the Big 12 title game — now is the time to get in on those odds.
But don’t let the current rankings fool you. TCU is no lock to make the CFP.
