Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. I hope everyone had a nice Thanksgiving. Now it’s time for college football.
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Make-or-break moments in college football
This is the most excited I’ve been for a weekend of college football in a long time. The race for the College Football Playoff is wide open, with as many as nine teams having a realistic shot at ending up in the four-team field. While a few of the top contenders (Georgia, Washington, Texas and Alabama) should have no trouble in their rivalry games this weekend, other teams will be sweating more. Let’s take a look at the most notable games of the weekend.
No. 2 Ohio State at No. 3 Michigan (noon ET Saturday on Fox)
This is the big one. For the third straight year, this game will determine who will represent the Big Ten East in the conference championship game against Iowa in Indianapolis. And while the Buckeyes sneaked into the College Football Playoff field last year after losing to the Wolverines, it’s exceedingly unlikely, given the résumés of other playoff contenders, that the loser of this year’s game will earn a spot in the four-team field. It’s no exaggeration to say that both teams’ seasons boil down to the result of tomorrow afternoon’s game in Ann Arbor.
It’s an extraordinarily evenly matched game. Michigan has the nation’s best scoring defense, allowing a mere 9.0 points per game. Ohio State is second with 9.3. Michigan’s offense ranks 11th in the nation with 38.3 points per game. Ohio State isn’t far behind (24th, 33.8). Both teams have electric playmakers on offense (Marvin Harrison Jr., TreVeyon Henderson and Kyle McCord for the Buckeyes; Blake Corum, J.J. McCarthy and Roman Wilson for the Wolverines) and an army of fantastic defenders who will swarm the ball. It has the potential to be the best game of the season.
An underrated narrative here is that this could be the last Ohio State–Michigan game with such enormous stakes. With the playoff expanding to 12 teams next year and the Big Ten eliminating its division structure, it’ll be less likely that these two will meet with both a trip to the Playoff and conference title game on the line.
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch via USA Today Network
No. 5 Florida State at Florida (7 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN)
This time last week, this looked like it’d be a breeze for the Seminoles. Florida is having its worst season in years, and FSU is undefeated. But then Florida State’s star quarterback, Jordan Travis, suffered a severe leg injury in the team’s win over North Alabama. Now, FSU will turn to redshirt junior Tate Rodemaker at quarterback needing a win to keep its playoff hopes alive.
The committee dropped the Seminoles from No. 4 to No. 5 in its rankings this week, a move committee chairman Boo Corrigan said was about rewarding Washington for its win over Oregon State and not downgrading FSU after Travis’s injury. It’s scary to be ranked No. 5 when there are only four spots available, but it’s important to remember that either Ohio State or Michigan will be tumbling out of the top four this week, so FSU should still be in control of its own destiny.
Florida’s got something to play for, too. At 5–6, the Gators need a win to become bowl-eligible.
No. 16 Oregon State at No. 6 Oregon (8:30 p.m. ET today on Fox)
The Ducks still have an outside chance at making the Playoff, but that hinges on beating the Beavers here and then knocking off Washington in the Pac-12 title game. Oregon is a two-touchdown favorite at home, but just ask Washington about how tough Oregon State can be.
This game also has significant implications for Washington’s playoff hopes. If Oregon loses and No. 15 Arizona beats 3–8 Arizona State in the Territorial Cup, the Wildcats would be the Huskies’ conference title game opponent. Arizona is a really good team and gave Washington a run for its money in their meeting Sept. 30, but Washington would surely rather face the Wildcats than Oregon with a trip to the Playoff on the line.
No. 9 Missouri at Arkansas (4 p.m. ET today on CBS)
Mizzou is enjoying one of the best seasons in the program’s history and will be in line for a New Year’s Six bowl appearance if it can take care of business against Arkansas in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks (4–7) are having a down season, but the betting markets aren’t convinced this will be an easy victory for the Tigers. Mizzou is currently favored by about a touchdown at most sportsbooks.
No. 17 Iowa at Nebraska (noon ET today on CBS)
I’ve been perversely fascinated by Iowa football for a few years now. I find it incredible that a team can win so many games while playing a style of football that is about as obsolete as black-and-white television. The Hawkeyes are averaging 18.5 points per game, the 11th-worst average in FBS this season. The 10 teams ranked below them are a combined 25–85. They’re actually the worst offense in the country by yards per game (245.4). But Iowa is 9–2 and will be playing in the Big Ten championship game next weekend against the winner of Ohio State–Michigan. That’s outrageous.
The over-under for Iowa’s game two weeks ago against Rutgers was the lowest on record, falling as low as 27.5 by kickoff. The betting total for this week’s game is even lower, sitting at 26.5 as of this writing.
There aren’t many Power 5 offenses as putrid as Iowa’s, but Nebraska’s is one of them. The Cornhuskers are averaging just 18.7 points per game, 12th worst in the nation. Use proper eye protection if you tune in to this one.
No. 23 Tulane vs. UTSA (3:30 p.m. ET today on ABC) and No. 25 Liberty at UTEP (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday on CBS Sports Network)
Tulane and Liberty have a lot to play for over these final weeks. The highest-ranked Group of 5 program in the College Football Playoff committee’s final rankings will earn a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl game. Right now, the committee gives the edge to Tulane, which, although it has lost a game (to Ole Miss), still has more impressive victories than undefeated Liberty. Liberty should have no trouble against 3–8 UTEP, but Tulane will face a challenge against an 8–3 UTSA team. Tulane needs to win to earn a spot in the AAC championship game. Liberty, assuming it gets past UTEP, will have an opportunity to impress the committee in the Conference USA title game next weekend against a New Mexico State team that just walloped Auburn.
SIQ
NFL games on Fridays (like this afternoon’s meeting between the Dolphins and Jets) are exceedingly rare. The last two were in 2020 and ’09, when Christmas fell on a Friday. Before that, the Chiefs and Dolphins met on a Friday in ’05 in a game that was hastily rescheduled for what reason?
- A snowstorm
- A hurricane
- A water main break in the stadium
- Mechanical issues with the team plane
Wednesday’s SIQ: The Packers’ game against the Lions yesterday was their 37th appearance on Thanksgiving Day, tied with which other franchise for the most Thanksgiving games in NFL history (excluding traditional annual hosts Detroit and Dallas)?
- Bears
- Steelers
- Giants
- Commanders
A big reason the Bears and Packers are atop the list of Thanksgiving game participants is that they play in the same division as the Lions, who host a game every year. Indeed, Detroit and Chicago have played 19 times on Thanksgiving, while Thursday’s game was the 22nd holiday meeting between Detroit and Green Bay. (The other NFC North team, the Vikings, has played only nine Thanksgiving games.) The Bears once had their own Thanksgiving tradition as well. For 12 consecutive years from 1922 to ’33, the Bears played the Chicago Cardinals on Thanksgiving.
