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AAP
Business
Colin Brinsden, AAP Economics and Business Correspondent

No impact on rates from budget: Treasury

Treasury does not believe government spending in last week's federal budget will inflame inflation or alter the outlook for interest rates.

The 2022/23 budget papers show the government made $39 billion worth of new spending decisions, which includes an $8.6 billion cost-of-living package.

Luke Yeaman, deputy secretary of Treasury's macroeconomic group, told a Senate estimates hearing that given the size of the overall economy, he did not expect this would have a material impact on inflation.

"We don't believe that level of spending is going to materially change the profile of interest rates," he told senators on Wednesday.

His comments came as the Reserve Bank of Australia appeared to be laying the groundwork for an interest rate rise in coming months.

The RBA left the the cash rate at a record low of 0.1 per cent at Tuesday's monthly board meeting.

But RBA governor Philip Lowe notably dropped the word "patient" in his post-meeting statement, having repeatedly used it in the past in terms of needing to lift interest rates.

He also warned that the rate of inflation - already at 3.5 per cent - is expected to grow further in coming quarters, and that the board will be monitoring the data closely from now on.

He made no reference to last week's budget.

Commonwealth Securities senior economist Ryan Felsman said the RBA appeared to be losing its patience.

"With price pressures becoming more widespread, government pandemic restrictions removed and the economy growing at a strong pace, pressure is building on the RBA to lift the cash rate from record-low levels enacted during the pandemic crisis," Mr Felsman said.

CBA Group economists expect the preconditions for an interest rate hike to be broadly met by the June board meeting, and are tipping a 0.15 per cent increase.

Mr Felsman said this would end the longest RBA policy easing cycle on record.

The bank last raised the cash rate in November 2010.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg tried to soothe the concerns of voters, believing many households are in a position to absorb a rate rise.

"Australians are about 36 months ahead on mortgage payments if you take into account offset accounts," he told the Nine Network.

"And what the Reserve Bank said yesterday was that household budgets were in a strong position."

But Dr Lowe also said "rising prices are putting pressure on household budgets and the floods are causing hardship for many communities".

The interest rate outlook will come under scrutiny when the RBA faces the Senate estimates hearing later on Wednesday.

Michele Bullock will make her first appearance as deputy RBA governor at the hearing.

The former assistant governor for the payment system has taken over from Guy Debelle, who resigned from the central bank last month to take up a role in the private sector.

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