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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

Swinney expected to become Scotland’s first minister next week after Kate Forbes rules herself out – as it happened

John Swinney Kate Forbes SNP England Commons (Facility) Scotland
John Swinney
John Swinney Photograph: Andrew Milligan/PA

Afternoon summary

This shady backroom deal won’t cover-up the bitter splits that exist within the SNP – it just applies a sticking plaster to a gaping wound.

Kate Forbes famously warned that ‘continuity won’t cut it’ when it came to Humza Yousaf, yet she’s now urging the SNP to go back to the future by imposing John Swinney – a failed former leader, tied at the hip to Nicola Sturgeon – as first minister.

Scotland deserves better than someone whose fingerprints are all over 17 years of SNP failure and secrecy. John Swinney has confirmed, via his campaign slogan, that he will ignore the public’s real priorities to obsess about independence yet again.

That is all from me for now. But we will be back at 10pm with a blog covering the results of the local elections, and all the reaction they generate. Yohannes Lowe will be writing the blog overnight, and I will be taking over at 6am tomorrow. And the blogging will then carry on into the weekend.

Updated

For readers who have been complaining about the shortage of #dogsatpollingstations …

According to an account by John Boothman and Kieran Andrews in the Times of why Kate Forbes decided not to run for the SNP leadership, she thought she could have won but decided, given the state the party is in, unity was more important. Boothman and Andrews write:

Forbes’s allies said she believed that she could still win a contest with Swinney but understood that the party needed unity and to avoid a bruising contest similar to last year’s battle to replace Nicola Sturgeon.

Backers such as Michelle Thomson and Ivan McKee, the MSPs, were extremely keen that she ran but there has been an acceptance within her team of her reasoning for deciding not to enter the race.

“She reckoned she could have given it a good go and could have won,” said a source. “But given the scale of the challenge to the party she didn’t feel it was the right time. It’s time to unify.”

Small boat arrivals reached 711 on Wednesday, highest daily total this year, figures show

More than 700 migrants arrived in the UK after crossing the Channel in a single day – a new record for the year so far, PA Media reports. PA says:

The Home Office said 711 people made the journey in 14 boats on Wednesday, suggesting an average of 51 people per boat.

It takes the provisional total for the number of arrivals this year so far to 8,278.

Channel crossings had already hit a new record high for the first four months of a calendar year, and the latest figures show they have now jumped 34% on 2023 when 6,192 were recorded and are up 19% on the total at this stage in 2022 (6,945).

Last year 29,437 migrants arrived in the UK, down 36% on a record 45,774 arrivals in 2022.

Commenting on the figures, Stephen Kinnock, the shadow immigration minister, said:

Small boats crossings are going up under this prime minister, with a 33% increase on this time last year. There have been 10,000 crossings under the current home secretary alone and he has only been in place over the wetter winter months.

For all the government’s fanfare, we know the unaffordable and unworkable Rwanda plan won’t fix this chaos. It is costing half a billion pounds and will only cover a few hundred people a year, less than half of those who arrived on a single day this week.

James Cleverly condemns protesters blocking coach taking asylum seekers to Bibby Stockholm

James Cleverly, the home secretary, has condemned people trying to stop a coach removing asylum seekers from a hotel in Peckham, and taking them to the Bibby Stockholm barge, as students “posing for social media”. He said moving asylum seekers out of hotels was in the public interest.

Housing migrants in hotels costs the British taxpayer millions of pounds every day.

We will not allow this small group of students, posing for social media, to deter us from doing what is right for the British public.

Here is our story about the protest.

Ben Quinn has posted video from the scene within the last few minutes.

The Conservative MP Tom Hunt has said his dyspraxia caused him to misplace his photo ID ahead of today’s elections. (See 10.30am.) After his problem was reported on social media, Hunt told PA Media:

I don’t want to blame everything on my dyspraxia, but it’s a factor in my life I have to deal with.

It’s all well and good people saying we need to have more neurodiverse Members of parliament, but having a massive pile-on on them, I don’t think it’s going to encourage more people.

UPDATE: Hunt posted this on X.

I understand the interest in my emergency proxy vote today. I do tend to be bad at losing stuff. I’m also very dyspraxic. Though I don’t want to blame this on everything it does make things challenging for me and I do my best but I do lose things and today it was my passport.

Updated

Minister ‘sorry’ as veterans find ID card not valid for English elections

Johnny Mercer, the veterans minister, has apologised to former military personnel who have been prevented from using their veterans ID in order to vote in the local elections in England, Jessica Elgot reports.

Kate Forbes is not planning to make any further comments today, or to give interviews about her decision not to stand for the SNP leadership (see 1.59pm), her office says.

Swinney expected to become first minister next week provided no surprise candidate enters contest

Kate Forbes’ decision not to contest the leadership for the second time makes it increasingly likely that John Swinney will succeed Yousaf unopposed and will be appointed Scotland’s seventh first minister next week.

The SNP is keeping the contest open until noon on Monday 6 May on the off-chance a rebel party member puts their names forward. If no other candidate emerges, it is thought Yousaf could formally resign as first minister as early as next Tuesday, and allow Swinney to take the oath the following day.

Forbes’ decision appeared to be confirmed after a raft of her former supporters - MSPs and MPs who backed her leadership bid last year, swung behind Swinney. Those include Joanna Cherry, the SNP MP who was a leading critic of Nicola Sturgeon’s leadership, and backbench MSPs such as Kenny Gibson and David Torrance.

Kate Forbes rules out standing for SNP leader, meaning Swinney now on course to become first minister unopposed

Kate Forbes, the former finance secretary who was narrowly beaten by Humza Yousaf in last year’s SNP leadership contest, has announced that she will not be standing this time. She has just issued this statement.

I have listened very carefully to the vision John Swinney set out this morning for Scotland.

I welcomed, and embrace, his commitment to ensure internal respect for robust and divergent debate in the party, which is the lifeblood of any democratic institution like the SNP.

I was also greatly heartened by his drive to restore a sense of courtesy and dignity to the way we conduct ourselves as a party and as a parliament. If we want to rewin the trust of the people, tone and language matter in the way we conduct ourselves.

I have also had the opportunity to speak directly with him to discuss the future of our party and our country.

Those discussions on the future of the SNP and our vision for Scotland were both frank and constructive.

What emerged was that we share a powerful common purpose for the country.

That includes a passion to revitalise our party, reach out to those who feel disempowered and reinvigorate the independence movement.

It also includes an understanding that economic growth and tackling poverty must again be key priorities, and that a just transition to ‘net zero’ must work with, and not against, our communities and businesses.

But more than that, John is clear that he is determined to return the SNP to governing from the mainstream. Competent, candid government earning the trust of the people.

That was the vision I offered in the last leadership contest, and is evidently demanded by the Scottish public.

I have therefore weighed the decision whether or not to seek the leadership of the party with great care.

Ultimately, I have concluded that the best way to deliver the urgent change Scotland needs is to join with John Swinney and advocate for that reform agenda within the Scottish government.

I can therefore today announce that I will not be seeking nomination as the next SNP leader.

John will therefore have my support and endorsement in any campaign to follow.

I sincerely thank every party member, and each of my parliamentary colleagues in Holyrood and Westminster, who have been in touch to urge me to stand.

I recognise many people might be disappointed that I will not be contesting the position of leader at this time. To those people I say this - you can be certain that delivering on the priorities for which we have, together, advocated in recent years has been at the heart of today’s decision.

It is now clear from this morning’s statement that in John Swinney we have someone who not only understands that need for reform, but has now committed to delivering it.

I look forward to playing my role in making that happen.

This announcement means John Swinney is now expected to be elected SNP leader unopposed, making him the next first minister.

Updated

Here is video of John Swinney making his leadership announcement earlier.

Yousaf condemns Home Office's detention raids on asylum seekers as 'inhumane'

Humza Yousaf, Scotland’s outgoing first minister, has denounced the Home Office’s “inhumane” and “cruel” detention raids on asylum seekers and urged the UK government to scrap the policy. Speaking during first minister’s questions, he said:

I deplore the inhumane Home Office enforcement action that we’ve seen; detaining people to forcibly remove them to Rwanda is cruel, and punishes some of the most vulnerable in our society.

Yousaf was asked by Scottish National party MSP Karen Adams about the Guardian’s report on Sunday that the Home Office was to start detaining asylum seekers for forced deportation to Rwanda. Yousaf replied:

At times like this we all have an obligation to just step back. Actually think about what’s going on here - in a country, the UK, where those who flee persecution, war or extreme poverty, come to our shores.

What has happened to a UK that’s often opened its homes, its hearts, its arms to people who are seeking sanctuary? Instead we have a UK government that wants to pit community against community, person against person, race against race.

He said the SNP had consistently opposed the Safety of Rwanda Act’s measures, and deplored the UK government’s “hostile environment rhetoric.” He said the policy breached the UK international obligations to refugees.

I’m afraid that inflammatory rhetoric, that stoking the flames of division is only detrimental for each and every single one of us.

I hope every single member of this chamber will play their part in ensuring that we put out the flames as opposed to stoking the flames of racial, religious, tension that I’m afraid this Rwanda act undoubtedly inflames.

Ian Blackford, the former SNP leader at Westminster has just told Radio 4’s the World at One that he hopes Kate Forbes will decide not to stand for the SNP leadership. Describing himself as a friend of hers, he said it would be best for the party, for the Scottish government and for Scotland if she were to serve in a John Swinney administration.

Forbes is due to make an announcement about her plans this afternoon. Asked if he knew what she would be saying, Blackford avoided the question, but he said he would advise her to get behind Swinney. She had “an incredible part” to play in his government, he said.

Mordaunt insists she will keep backing Sunak in response to Labour taunts about her leadership ambitions

Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons, has joked about claims that she is preparing to replace Rishi Sunak in the event of a leadership challenge taking place after the local elections.

Speaking during business questions in the Commons this morning, Mordaunt said:

I … have read that I’m to be installed rather like a new boiler into No 10 next week, and I have to say there is as much truth to these stories as there is in Labour’s assurances to its business community that it isn’t actually going to do the things it’s been saying it’s going to do, as it’s promised its union paymasters.

But let me say again, I support our prime minister and I will continue to support him after this weekend and beyond.

Mordaunt was responding to a question from Labour’s Nick Smith, shadow deputy leader of the Commons, mocking her and several other ministers are are said to be plotting to replace Sunak.

And in response to a claim from Smith that Tories are hoping something will crop up between now and the general election to revive their chances, Mordaunt said:

I think something is going to crop up because whether it’s pensions, the NHS, rail tax or welfare, the Labour party claim they are going to do one thing, but are planning another and I think the public will see through this.

It is the most audacious deception since the Big Bad Wolf donned a nightie and asked Little Red Riding Hood to admire his upper dentures. But unlike Red Riding Hood, the British people have met this wolf before and they remember it doesn’t end well.

Updated

Back at FMQs Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, said both possible candidates in the SNP leadership contest offered chaos. He said John Swinney was the worst education secretary in the Scottish parliament’s history, and he deleted Covid messages that should have been shown to the inquiry. And Kate Forbes would be more suited to the Conservative party than to the SNP, he claimed.

This is from Stephen Flynn, the SNP leader at Westminser, on John Swinney’s leadership campaign launch.

The unifying statement of intent from John Swinney this morning could not have been more impressive.

Precisely what the party, but more importantly the public, needed to hear.

A man who speaks to all of Scotland, he will lead us to a brighter future.

Ross says Yousaf is lashing out at the Scottish Tories because they forced him out of his job. John Swinney is pushing for independence. That means more division for Scotland, he says.

Yousaf says whoever stands for the leadership of the SNP will be defending the record of the government. He claims the only reason Westminster is refusing to allow another second independence referendum is because it fears the result.

Ross says Swinney is supposed to be a safe pair of hands, but he “dropped the ball dozens of times”. He criticises Swinney’s record as education secretary, and says he was to blame for the disastrous ferry deal.

Yousaf says Swinney was part of a government that is lifting 100,000 children out of poverty this year.

Ross says John Swinney was “Nicola Sturgeon’s human shield”. And he was the person who brought the “extremist” Greens into the Scottish government. He says Swinney’s fingerprints are over the Scottish government’s “most toxic policies”.

Yousaf says Ross served in Boris Johnson’s governemnt. He even called Johnson an honest man.

Humza Yousaf takes FMQs at Holyrood

Douglas Ross, the Scottish Tory leader, opens FMQs by saying this could be Humza Yousaf’s last. He says John Swinney said he would focus on growth at his press conference this morning. But when he was in government, Swinney did the opposite, he says.

And Ross says Swinney’s slogan is uniting for independence. That is not what Scotland needs, he says.

Yousaf says Ross is talking about personalities, not policies. That is because the SNP’s policies are popular.

We’re the party that abolished prescription charges. We’re the party of free personal and nursing care. We’re the party of free bus travel for those who are under 22, over 60, those with a disability. We are the party of the baby box, the party of free childcare.

And what about the Conservatives? They are the party of Windrush, they’re the party of bankers bonuses.

Carol Monaghan, another SNP MP who supports Kate Forbes, has welcomed what John Swinney said about her in his press conference.

Excellent statement from @JohnSwinney about his intention to stand as leader of @theSNP.
Very clear message about the importance of bringing the extremely talented @_KateForbes back into the heart of government.

YouGov says its latest polling has the Conservative party at 18% – its lowest share of the vote in YouGov polling this parliament, and its lowest level since the time of the European elections in 2019, when the Tories came fifth as Theresa May’s Brexit deal was falling apart.

Former energy minister Chris Skidmore is today saying the UK is one of the biggest culprits of subsidising fossil fuel production and turbocharging global heating.

Speaking in Paris at the UNEP sustainable investment forum, he is telling world leaders that he supports the Labour party’s pledge for no new oil and gas projects in the North Sea, while criticising Tory plans to keep extracting oil and gas well after 2040.

According to an extract from the speech released in advance, he is saying:

I took the difficult decision to resign from the UK Parliament in January, in protest at the UK government’s, my own government’s decision to legislate for new, additional oil and gas licences, against the advice of the Committee on Climate Change, against the warnings of the IEA and the UNCCC.

For the UK, it marked a moment where sadly we lost our position of climate leadership, having led at Glasgow in 2021, with the most ambitious of all G7 national determined contributions.

For myself, having been responsible for net zero, I could not bring myself to support measures that clearly will cause future harm, and set a precedent to continue to explore for new oil and gas well beyond 2040.

If we focus only on decarbonisation, on tripling our renewable energy supply, and doubling our energy efficiency measures, this is the right thing to do, but it cannot be the only thing that we do. To meet a 1.5 degree pathway, we need to reduce our oil and gas use globally by 65%. There is no room for new oil and gas, and certainly no room for countries to finance new oil and gas projects.

And yet, in 2022, $1.5 trillion was spent globally on subsidising fossil fuels with $200 billion in the G7 alone. The UK and Italy have been the biggest culprits, each subsidising fossil fuels to the tune of $50 billion each, yet across the G7, $42 billion was spent on support for new fossil fuel exploration and production.

Swinney's leadership launch - snap verdict

John Swinney has been the clear favourite to replace Humza Yousaf since some point on Monday morning, when the bookmakers realised that the person they had listed as an 8-1 outsider was coming under strong pressure to run. At his launch today he showed why he will be very hard to beat.

Open to the charge of being a failed leader from 20 years ago, and too associated with the SNP’s discredited old guard, Swinney embraced these points head on and instead make the argument that it was experience that made him a strong candidate. He argued his case well (see 10.40am, 10.49am and 10.53am) and none of the questions from the press on these points caused him any difficulty.

Swinney also insisted that he was not just a continuity candidate, and that he accepted the need for change. (See 10.47am.) But, beyond saying the word, he did not spell out what this might involve. Given that he may only have been thinking seriously about doing this job for 72 hours, perhaps that is understandable. Over time, he will have to flesh it out.

The most interesting part of his pitch, of course, was what he said about Kate Forbes. (See 10.43am.) The two have spoken, and so Swinney must have a better insight into what she needs to hear to persuade her not to stand against him than most of us. His comments – in effect, offering her a big cabinet role – sounded calibrated to give her cover for an announcement later today saying she won’t be standing. An alternative theory would be that he was only talking her up so that, if she does stand, it will be her who looks divisive, not him – but it did not sound like that; his offer appeared genuine.

And that is the way it is being interpreted. This is from Joanna Cherry MP, one of Forbes’ supporters in the party.

I am very pleased to hear John Swinney reach out to Kate Forbes & pledge to restore internal party democracy & respectful debate in @theSNP in his leadership pitch. This should set the tone for all that follows.

And this is from James Cook, the BBC’s Scotland editor.

If Kate Forbes runs after this speech from John Swinney in which he has extensively paid tribute to her in the most glowing terms then it will be the mother of all rejections. Seems vanishingly unlikely.

Updated

Swinney says he wants MSPs to show more courtesy towards each other. He says the public don’t like the unpleasantness.

Swinney says he has changed since he led the SNP between 2000 and 2004. (His leadership then was judged a failure.)

He says he’s “a stronger character who’s done a lot of tough stuff”.

Asked if he would deliver independence, Swinney replied: “Yes.”

Swinney says he has 'formidable electoral track record' and experience of leading SNP 'through tricky waters'

Swinney says he has “a pretty formidable electoral track record”. He explains:

I’m longest serving parliamentarian in Scotland. I’ve won every single election I have contested with my name on the ballot paper since 1997 and there’s nobody else currently in Scotland has done that.

He also says he has “steered the SNP government through some pretty tricky waters in the past”.

When he became finance minister in 2007, the SNP had a minority government and people said he would never be able to get a budget through parliament. But he got 10 budgets through the parliament, he says.

Swinney says there is no need for an early election. Scotland has a fixed-term parliament system, and that allows changes of first minister without an election, he says.

Asked why he thinks he should be SNP leader, Swinney says he thinks the party needs “a strong, reassuring, experienced, skilled individual who can create the bridge to the future for our party at a moment of difficulty”.

Asked what job he might offer Forbes, Swinney says: “I think we’re getting ahead of ourselves.”

He also says he has made it “pretty clear there is going to have to be change”.

He is stepping up to the plate to deliver that, he says.

He also says, once he draws the SNP together, “the opposition parties better watch out what’s coming towards them”.

Swinney is now taking questions.

Asked about Kate Forbes, he says it is for her to set out her position.

He says they are friends. Of course they have talked about the leadership, he says.

He says he and Forbes worked on the Scottish child payment.

Scotland is in a better position than the characterisation put about, he says.

Swinney says he is 'no caretaker' and he would lead SNP into 2026 elections and beyond

Swinney ends by saying he would not be a short-term leader.

I am no caretaker. I am no interim leader. I’m offering to lead my party through the Westminster elections and to lead us beyond the 2026 elections – two contests which I intend to win for the SNP and for Scotland.

Updated

Swinney praises Kate Forbes and says he wants her to play 'significant' role in his team

Swinney says he would run an “inclusive” government.

And he makes an explicit pitch to Kate Forbes, his main rival.

I want Kate Forbes to play a significant part in that team.

She is an intelligent, creative, thoughtful person who has much to contribute to our national life. And, if elected, I will make sure that Kate is able to make that contribution.

Forbes is under pressure not to run against Swinney, which would allow him to take over as a unity candidate, probably unopposed. This is Swinney’s offer to her.

Swinney says the SNP is not as united as it should be.

He says he could have left it to others to sort this out.

But he goes on:

I care too much about the future of Scotland and the Scottish National Party to walk on by.

Having joined the SNP as a teenager, having helped bring my party from the fringes of politics to being the government of Scotland, having served as a senior minister for 16 years, and having helped steer Scotland so close to independence in 2014, I want to give all that I have in me to ensure the success of our cause.

He says he thinks he has the experience and skills to win the trust of people across Scotland.

Swinney says he wants the SNP to stand for what the people of Scotland want.

As first minister, his goals would come from the centre-left tradition, he says. That means “the pursuit of economic growth and social justice, economic growth not for its own sake, but to support the services and the society”.

Swinney says he wants to 'unite SNP and unite Scotland for independence'

Swinney says he wants to “unite the SNP and unite Scotland for independence”. He goes on:

One of the benefits of stepping back from frontline politics a year ago is I’ve had the time and the opportunity to see our political situation from a different perspective than before.

There’s a huge amount that the SNP has achieved on behalf of the people of Scotland and much about which we should feel very, very proud: the Scottish child payment, free university tuition, the massive expansion of childcare and much much more.

SNP policies transform lives. They lift children from poverty, give them a better start in life and enable them to go to university.

Updated

Swinney confirms he is standing to be SNP leader and Scotland's first minister

Swinney has confirmed he is standing for SNP leader.

John Swinney holds press conference

John Swinney is about to speak at his press conference in Edinburgh.

Màiri McAllan, energy secretary in the Scottish government, has just introduced him.

According to ITV’s Harry Horton, the Conservative MP Tom Hunt told colleagues last night that he would have difficulty voting today because he does not possess the right photo ID.

It was this government, of course, that introduced the legislation saying photo ID is required to vote.

Ireland tells UK government it is not deploying police at border with NI to block asylum seekers

Ireland has reiterated it will not deploy police to the border with Northern Ireland in an effort to ease one aspect of its asylum seeker row with the UK.

The Northern Ireland secretary Chris Heaton-Harris said he received the assurance from Ireland’s foreign minister, Micheál Martin, in a “constructive” phone call on Wednesday night.

It came after Rishi Sunak said the Irish government “must uphold its promises” to avoid a hard border and avoid setting up checkpoints to prevent asylum seekers entering the republic. Some UK media reported that Ireland was sending police to the border.

Ireland’s justice minister last week said 100 additional police officers would be made available for “frontline enforcement work”. Dublin officials say there was never an intention to put them on the border and blamed the spat on mischief which they said they hope will subside after the English and Welsh local elections.

Kate Forbes due to announce later today if she will be running for SNP leader

Kate Forbes, the former finance secretary in the Scottish government who was narrowly beaten by Humza Yousaf in last year’s SNP leadership contest is to make a statement on whether she will run for the SNP leadership, PA Media reports. PA says:

Forbes confirmed this week that she is weighing up another run at the top job after the resignation of Humza Yousaf on Monday.

Her announcement will come in the hours after former deputy first minister John Swinney – who has received support from a number of senior Cabinet figures – announces his own plans, with an expectation that he will put his name forward.

Chris Musson from the Scottish Sun says the Forbes announcement is coming mid afternoon.

Sadiq Khan took his dog to the polling station, but Blue Cross, a pet welfare charity, is advising people to think twice about doing so, because some polling stations don’t let dogs in. “There’s a real risk that your beloved pet could be stolen if you leave them tied up alone outside, so take someone with you who can stay with your pet while you vote, or leave your pet at home,” it says.

In London Sadiq Khan, the Labour mayor, and Susan Hall, the Conservative candidate, and Khan’s main rival, have both already voted.

Daniel Boffey’s report on the Hall campaign in the Guardian today is well worth a read.

Kwasi Kwarteng calls Liz Truss ‘kind of Trumpian’ over firing by tweet

Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor of the exchequer for 43 of Liz Truss’s 49 days as British prime minister, has said Truss “essentially” sacked him “on Twitter”, a dismissal he called “kind of Trumpian” in its swiftness and brutality as Britain fell into crisis, Martin Pengelly reports.

Good morning. It’s local elections day and, although in terms of the number of seats being contested this is a smallish local elections round (around 2,600 council seats are up for grabs – last year it was more than 8,000), in other respects this is a major event in the local elections cycle, for four reasons.

First, everyone in England and Wales gets the chance to vote for at least something. In all of Wales, and in some parts of England, if you want to vote, you can only vote for a police and crime commissioner. But that’s still a vote.

Second, there are 10 metro mayor posts up for election. Two of these are brand new posts (East Midlands, and York and North Yorkshire), and one is half-new, an extension of an old post (North East, replacing North of Tyne). The extension of metro mayors is the biggest development in local government in Britain in the past decade, and this is the biggest round of mayoral elections yet.

Third, we’ve got a byelection too – in Blackpool South. Byelections can be a better guide to general election results than local elections, and this will be a good test of how well Labour is doing, and how much damage Reform UK can do to the Tory vote.

And, fourth (and most obviously), these are the last big elections before the general elections.

Here is Eleni Courea’s overnight preview.

Not much actual politics normally happens on election days, and sometimes this blog gets reduced to not much more than #dogsatpollingstations. But, thankfully, the SNP are providing us with some proper news. There are no local elections in Scotland, but there is an election about to take place there for SNP leader and first minister, and John Swinney is expected to announce he is standing at a news conference this morning. Libby Brooks has the details.

This announcement will shift the spotlight to Kate Forbes, who was runner up in the leadership contest last year and who has yet to announce whether or not she is standing. As Connor Gillies from Sky News reports, her decision may hinge on what Swinney has to say.

Kate Forbes will not be at John Swinney’s Edinburgh announcement today as speculation grows over the pair doing a deal, @SkyNews understands.

Told Ms Forbes feels big expectations to run from supporters who crave change, but decision hangs on the Swinney pitch at 10.30am.

Forbes will want to make an assessment as to how strong Swinney is as a candidate, whether he is committed to change (“continuity won’t cut it” was her line in last year’s contest) and whether there would be a good role for her in a Swinney administration.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: Kemi Badenoch, the business and trade secretary, takes questions in the Commons.

10.30am: Penny Mordaunt, leader of the Commons, makes a Commons statement on next week’s Commons business.

10.30am: John Swinney holds a press conference in Edinburgh.

11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.

Noon: Humza Yousaf takes first minister’s questions at Holyrood.

Updated

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