There is little question that the mayoral and local election results point to a general election rout for the Tories.
Their position is perilous thanks to the prevalence of anti-Conservative voting which is creating a vicious pincer movement against them. In 2019, at the behest of Boris Johnson and his pledge to “get Brexit done”, the party won its first decisive parliamentary majority for decades. That advantage is unravelling as Red Wall voters turn their backs on the Tories.
Yet what points to catastrophe is the haemorrhaging of the so-called Blue Wall in the South-East. Across the region from Crawley to Basildon, disaster unfolded on Thursday. The Liberal Democrats gained control of Tunbridge Wells following a string of Tory defeats. Labour has a majority on Hampshire’s Rushmoor council for the first time. Voters appear willing to back whichever party is best placed to hurt the Tories.
A similar pattern emerged in London. Labour triumphed in the relatively affluent constituency of West Central for the first time. Sadiq Khan swept to victory in the mayoral race, making substantial gains in the outer London commuter belt contrary to expectations. Tory MPs in the suburbs are growing restive. The scope for Lib Dem and Labour advance is now significant. Middle-class voters across the South are rejecting the Tories in their droves. Many never supported leaving the European Union. The Truss budget left deep wounds, including elevated mortgage interest rates which hurt voters in London and the South-East.
Many find the Conservatives’ nativist world view and increasingly harsh attitude to immigration repugnant. They are not persuaded by the view of the Tory London mayoral candidate that “the green agenda is causing havoc in our city”. As such, it is clear most want rid of Sunak’s government. Predictions that the next election will result in a hung parliament are wide of the mark. The results confirm what we can discern in the polls: Labour is heading inexorably towards power.
What is less clear is that voters are ready to reward the party with a 1997-style landslide majority. We know Labour has a mountain to climb: in 2019, it suffered its worst defeat since 1935.
Moreover, many voters feel Labour’s alternative prospectus is too vague. Another issue is fragmentation: with more parties competing, notably the Greens (who performed well), outcomes are less predictable. Voters dissatisfied with the Labour leadership’s stance on the war in Gaza or its caution on the environment are willing to punish the party. That fact may yet deny Sir Keir Starmer the sweeping victory he craves.
