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Roll Call
Roll Call
Laura Weiss

How vulnerable House incumbents fared in the 2022 midterms - Roll Call

Here’s a rundown of the races where incumbents battled to keep their seats, based on results compiled by The Associated Press. Many descriptions of areas covered by new districts and the share of the 2020 vote that Democrat Joe Biden or then-President Donald Trump would have gotten in them come from data published by Daily Kos Elections.

This report will be updated.

Florida

Dunn defeats Lawson in member-member fight: Republican Rep. Neal Dunn prevailed in a battle against a fellow incumbent, Democratic Rep. Al Lawson. Dunn was leading the race in the 2nd District by 20 points when the AP called the race at 8:46 p.m. Eastern time. Lawson’s Jacksonville-based 5th District was divided into several pieces in redistricting, and rather than retire, he opted to run in a district that would have backed Trump by 11 points in 2020. Both Dunn and Lawson were elected to the congressional class of 2016.

Salazar hangs on in South Florida: Republican Rep. María Elvira Salazar won a second term representing the 27th District, which includes a large swath of Miami-Dade County. Salazar, a former television journalist, was leading Democratic state Sen. Annette Taddeo by 14 percentage points when the AP called the race at 8:29 p.m. Eastern time. The district is about 75 percent Latino, and the two candidates traded accusations of socialism. Biden would have won the district by less than 1 percentage point since it became more Republican after redistricting.

Illinois

Casten wins third term: After first prevailing in a primary against fellow incumbent Marie Newman, Democratic Rep. Sean Casten went on to beat Republican Keith Pekau, the mayor of Orland Park, to secure a third term in the House. Casten was leading in the 6th District by 8 percentage points when the AP called the race at 12:01 a.m.  Eastern time.

Underwood wins third term: Democrat Lauren Underwood, who made history in 2018 when, at 32, she became the youngest Black woman to serve in Congress, won a third term in a district that Biden carried by 11.4 points in 2020 and was redrawn in an effort to make it easier for her to win. Underwood defeated Republican Scott Gryder, chairman of the Kendall County Board. Underwood was leading by 8 points when the AP called the 14th District race at 1:10 a.m.  Eastern time.

Indiana

Mrvan holds off challenger: Rep. Frank J. Mrvan, a Democratic freshman who serves on the Education and Labor Committee, was reelected to a second term, beating back a challenge from Republican Air Force veteran Jennifer-Ruth Green. The 1st District, which includes the steel belt city of Gary, has been represented by a Democrat for more than 90 years. Mrvan was leading by 6 percentage points when the AP called the race at 1:58 a.m.

Iowa

Miller-Meeks hangs on against Bohannan: Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who first won election to the House in 2020 by six votes, beat Democrat Christina Bohanan, a state representative, to secure a second term in the 1st District. Miller-Meeks was leading by 6 percentage points when the AP called the race at 12:08 a.m.  Eastern time.

Hinson hangs onto House seat: Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, running in a new district after her old one was redrawn, defeated Democrat Liz Mathis in a Republican-leaning seat that Biden would have lost by 4.4 points in 2020. Hinson, first elected in 2020 over Democrat Abby Finkenauer to the state’s 1st District, ran in the 2nd District after the lines were redrawn. Mathis, currently a state senator, and Hinson are former journalists. Hinson was leading by 10 percentage points when AP called the race at 1:12 a.m. Eastern time.

Kansas

Davids wins a third term in Kansas: Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids once again prevailed over Republican Amanda Adkins in Kansas’ 3rd District. Davids was ahead by 12 percentage points when the AP called the race at 11:06 p.m. It was a rematch of sorts: Davids beat Adkins by 10 percentage points in 2020, but the lines of the district were subsequently redrawn, making it friendlier to the GOP. First elected in 2018, Davids is a member of the Ho-Chunk Nation and the sole Democrat in the Kansas delegation.

Michigan

Slotkin defeats Barrett: Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin defeated Republican state Sen. Tom Barrett in Michigan’s 7th District. Slotkin was leading Barrett by nearly 4 percentage points when the AP called the race at 3:08 a.m. Eastern time. Biden would have won the Lansing-area district by 0.5 percentage points. Outside groups spent heavily here, with the party committees and leading super PACs spending nearly $18 million through Oct. 31. An abortion referendum on the ballot in Michigan may have helped turn out voters for Slotkin. 

Kildee survives Michigan challenge: Rep. Dan Kildee defeated Republican challenger Paul Junge in the 8th District, continuing the Kildee family’s hold on the Flint-area seat. Kildee, first elected in 2012, was leading by 10 percentage points when the AP called the race at 10:12 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday. Kildee, a chief deputy whip, has pushed to address Flint’s lead-contaminated water supply and other priorities for the automaking district during his time in Congress, which followed his uncle Dale’s 36-year hold on the same seat. Junge, a former television anchor and Citizenship and Immigration Services staffer, previously lost a 2020 congressional campaign against Rep. Elissa Slotkin.           

Minnesota

Craig survives rematch against Kistner: Democratic Rep. Angie Craig, who first won election in the 2018 blue wave, beat GOP challenger Tyler Kistner, a military veteran, for the second cycle in a row. Craig was leading by 5 percentage points when the AP called the race at 1:20 a.m. Eastern time. The party committees and biggest outside groups spent more than $13 million on the race.  

Nebraska

Bacon edges Vargas to win fourth term: Republican Rep. Don Bacon was reelected to a fourth term in Nebraska’s 2nd District, fending off Democratic challenger Tony Vargas. Bacon, a retired Air Force brigadier general, led Vargas, a state senator, by 3 percentage points at 1:55 a.m. Eastern time, when the AP called the race. Bacon sits on the Agriculture and Armed Services committees. Biden won the district, which includes Omaha and its suburbs, by more than 6 percentage points in 2020.

New Hampshire

Pappas fends off Gen Z challenge: Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas won a third term representing New Hampshire’s 1st District, defeating Republican Karoline Leavitt, who turned 25 in August and had sought to be the youngest woman ever elected to Congress. Pappas was leading by 8 percentage points when the AP called the race at 12:57 a.m.  Eastern time. Pappas, the first openly gay representative from the Granite State, painted Leavitt as an extremist but has also campaigned on getting money out of politics. He is the first member to win three consecutive terms representing the 1st District, historically a swing seat, in 20 years.

Kuster hangs on in Granite State: Democratic Rep. Ann McLane Kuster — a lawyer from a family long involved in New Hampshire politics — won reelection in the 2nd District, which spans the state’s western and northern regions. Currently in her fifth term, Kuster has a seat on the Energy and Commerce Committee and led the creation of task forces on the opioid epidemic and sexual violence, while also holding a leadership post in the moderate New Democrat Coalition. She defeated Republican Robert Burns, a former county treasurer aligned with Trump. Burns beat a more moderate Republican in the primary, after a Democratic hybrid PAC waded in with ads described as opposing Burns that could have helped him win base voters — likely an effort to set up an easier race for Kuster. The AP called the race at 1:09 a.m. Eastern time with Kuster leading by 13 percentage points.

New Jersey

Andy Kim holds on against former Ghoul: Incumbent Rep. Andy Kim fended off a Jersey Devil in the form of Republican Bob Healey Jr., the former lead singer of punk band The Ghouls and yacht company executive. Kim raised his profile and cemented his reputation as a statesman on Jan. 6, 2021, when he was photographed after the Capitol attack quietly cleaning up debris. He raised more than double his opponent’s total through the third quarter, $6.2 million to $2.9 million. Kim benefited from a redistricting that removed Ocean County, a GOP stronghold, from the 3rd District in favor of more blue-leaning towns in Mercer and Monmouth counties. Kim was leading by 9 percentage points when the AP called the race at 11 p.m.  Eastern time. Kim first won the district in 2018 by less than a percentage point, going on to win by 8 points in 2020. In all his races, Kim, a former diplomat and adviser to Gen. David Petraeus, defeated self-funded millionaires.

New York

Garbarino wins second term: GOP Rep. Andrew Garbarino won a second term representing the 2nd District. Garbarino was leading by 20 points when the AP called the race at 1:10 a.m.  Eastern time. He faced Democrat Jackie Gordon, a retired Army reservist and former Babylon town councilmember, in a rematch of their 2020 contest.

Malliotakis beats Rose: Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis defeated former Democratic Rep. Max Rose, ending his comeback bid for the Staten Island-centered 11th District. Malliotakis was leading by 27 points when the AP called the race at 9:35 p.m. Eastern time. New York state legislators had attempted to reshape the 11th District to favor Democrats, but the state’s top court later threw out that map. Rose, an Army veteran who held the seat from 2019 to 2021, was a senior adviser to Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III on COVID-19 issues before running for the seat again.

Morelle wins third term: Democratic Rep. Joseph D. Morelle won a third term in New York’s 25th District. Morelle was leading Republican La’Ron Singletary by 5 percentage points when the AP called the race at 1:48 a.m.  Eastern time. Inside Elections rated the 25th District as Solid Democratic for most of the cycle but shifted it to Likely Democratic last week, reflecting its recent competitiveness. Still, Morelle had a significant cash advantage over Singletary.

Ohio

Landsman upsets longtime Cincinnati-area congressman: Cincinnati City Councilman Greg Landsman, a Democrat, defeated longtime Rep. Steve Chabot in the southwest Ohio 1st District that Chabot has represented for 26 of the last 28 years. Biden won the new district, redrawn to cut out the western suburbs that were a Chabot stronghold and added all of the city Cincinnati, by 9 points in 2020. Landsman was leading Chabot by 5 percentage points when the AP called the race at 1:54 a.m. Eastern time. Chabot was one of the last members of the class of 1994 — a Republican group that took the House majority that year for the first time since 1952.

Kaptur defeats Majewski: Rep. Marcy Kaptur, who has represented a swath of northwest Ohio since 1983, defeated Republican J.R. Majewski in the newly drawn 9th District that Biden lost by 3 points in 2020. Majewski, an Air Force veteran who raised thousands of dollars to bring people to attend the Jan. 6, 2021, rally in Washington disputing the results of the 2020 election, lost the backing of the National Republican Congressional Committee after AP reported that he had misrepresented his military service. Those troubles were compounded when reporters uncovered a drunk driving incident in 2001 that ran contrary to his claim that a “brawl” kept him from re-enlisting in the Air Force. Kaptur was leading by 13 points when the AP called the race at 11 p.m. Eastern time.

Pennsylvania

Cartwright defeats Bognet in rematch: Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright again prevailed over Republican Jim Bognet, a political consultant who served in the Trump administration, in a 2020 rematch. Cartwright was leading Bognet by 2 points when the AP called the race at 1:02 p.m. Eastern time. Trump won the district by about 3 points in 2020, and Cartwright is the only House Democrat to have won a district that also went for Trump in each election since 2016. 

Texas

Cuellar beats Garcia: Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, who survived a serious primary challenge from his left earlier this year, beat Republican Cassy Garcia, a former deputy state director for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, to win a 10th term in the House. Cuellar was leading in the 28th District by 13 percentage points when the AP called the race at 12:12 a.m. Eastern time.

Gonzalez prevails in member-vs.-member match against Flores: Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, who first won election to the House in 2016, beat fellow Rep. Mayra Flores, a Republican who won a special election for her seat earlier this year. Gonzalez, who opted to run in the 34th District after redistricting made his current seat more difficult, was leading by 8 percentage points when the AP called the race at 12:35 a.m. Eastern time. Biden won the 34th by more than 15 points in 2020, but the 2022 House race was competitive, and the party committees and biggest outside groups invested nearly $10 million to sway voters.

Virginia

Kiggans defeats Luria: Republican state Sen. Jen Kiggans prevailed over Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria in the 2nd District. Kiggans, a nurse practitioner who served in the Navy as a helicopter pilot for 10 years, was leading by 10 points when the AP called the race at 11:03 p.m. Eastern time. Kiggans, who was selected as a member of the House GOP campaign committee’s “Young Guns” program for promising candidates, was elected to the state Senate in 2019. Luria, a member of the select committee reviewing the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, was first elected in 2018 to represent the Virginia Beach-area district and is a member of the Armed Services Committee.

Spanberger beats Vega: Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger prevailed in her bid for a third term against Republican Yesli Vega, a member of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors. Spanberger was leading in the 7th District by 4 points when the AP called the race at 10:42 p.m. Eastern time. A centrist Democrat, Spanberger has cast herself as an independent voice in the House Democratic Caucus. After the 2020 cycle, Spanberger was a critic of the liberal messages of “defund the police” and this year leaned on her law enforcement background as a former U.S. Postal Service investigator against Vega, an auxiliary deputy in the Prince William County Sheriff’s Office.

Wexton defeats Cao: Two-term Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton beat Republican Hung Cao, a retired Navy captain who originally came to the United States as a refugee from Vietnam. Wexton was leading in the 10th District by 6 percentage points when the AP called the race at 11:01 p.m. p.m. Eastern time.

The post How vulnerable House incumbents fared in the 2022 midterms appeared first on Roll Call.

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