Gold prices are at all-time highs and now are beating the U.S. stock market.
Futures of the glittering metal are up about 11% year to date, after a superb rally in March. On March 11, gold hit a record high of $2,182 per ounce, and kept rising. Today, it trades around $2,300. By comparison, the S&P 500 is up about 10% and the Nasdaq up 9.7%.
In a research report last week, Wells Fargo Investment Institute remained bullish on gold prices, noting a tailwind from expectations of falling interest rates.
"Gold, in the past, has often been seen as an attractive investment alternative to high-quality interest-bearing assets when the Fed is cutting interest rates," wrote Investment Strategy Analyst Mason Mendez and John LaForge, head of Real Asset Strategy.
Conflict, Central Banks Drive Up Gold Prices
A rangebound U.S. dollar, heightened geopolitical risks, record purchases from emerging market central banks and heavy buying from consumers in emerging markets are other factors driving gold prices, the Wells Fargo strategists said.
Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, is skeptical that rate expectations are driving gold. He notes that 2-year Treasury yields, a gauge on the direction of short-term rates, are up this year.
One explanation, he believes, is that traders are trying to front-run major purchases from central banks eager to hedge geopolitical risk.
"Ever since Western sanctions against Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine, the value of holding gold reserves rather than Treasuries has become more obvious to many governments," Colas wrote in an analysis Thursday. "Both assets are priced in dollars, highly liquid, and respected as a long-term store of value. Physical gold, however, cannot be confiscated or subjected to sanctions once it is housed in a local vault."
How To Invest In Gold
Investors can trade gold futures, but an easier option for those with stock-trading accounts is exchange traded funds.
SPDR Gold Shares is the most liquid gold ETF, with about $58 billion in assets and an average daily volume of more than 7 million shares. It tracks the price of bullion and climbed to an all-time high last week. The ETF broke out of a double-bottom base on March 1 and is well extended from the 191.36 buy point.
The iShares Gold Trust also tracks gold prices and also rallied to record highs last week. It broke out at 39.08 on March 1.
Another ETF option with plenty of liquidity is VanEck Gold Miners, with average daily volume of more than 25 million shares. This week, shares cleared resistance around 32 after a 4.6% jump in March. While the move above 32.35 offers an entry, shares appear overbought. Investors may want to wait for a pullback.
